🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."