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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.